When President Bush and his closest advisers were planning to liberate
Iraq from Saddam Hussein, Russian President Vladimir Putin found himself
welcomed to the Bush family ranch in Crawford, Texas--a treat reserved
only for those deemed to be America's best friends. Russia was to join
the "coalition of the willing." Vladimir, however, did not
live up to George's expectations.
Putin correctly surmised that the majority of the Russian people were
in no mood to have their soldiers fight and die in the Middle East only
to suit the ambitions of Mr. Bush and his friend Ariel Sharon, the prime
minister of Israel. Putin's position was reinforced by very similar
reactions from the people and the leaders of France and Germany. Besides,
Russia had yet to come to grips with the Muslims of Chechnya trying
to free themselves from their Russian overlords. While Chechen terrorists
may be sympathizing with Muslim terrorists elsewhere, they apparently
are not part of the anti-American conspiracy of Al Qaida and its collaborators.
Since the collapse of the Soviet empire, average Russians have increasingly
tasted the benefits of economic growth and obviously prefer them to
the hollow rewards of military and imperial prowess.
Six years ago, the Russian government defaulted on its debt to foreign
lenders and declared a moratorium on principal payments. Since then,
however, the Russian economy has grown at a 7 percent annual rate. Exports
of oil and natural gas have boosted the foreign trade surplus to $60
billion. Nowadays, increasing ownership of cell phones, laptops, and
foreign cars demonstrates the nation's gradual economic progress.
Nevertheless, Russia's standard of living remains below Western European
levels. Housing is scarce and expensive. Public services function poorly.
Corruption runs rampant, and so does alcoholism. Since 1992, Russia's
population has been decreasing by one million, due mainly to rising
death rates (caused by deficient medical care) and falling birth rates.
The lower class has yet to benefit from the new economic freedom. The
wealth of the small number of multimillionaires is not trickling down.
When Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the boss of the giant oil company Yukos,
opposed Putin's attempt to raise taxes on the oil industry, the President
fought back by charging him with fraud and tax evasion.
As the owner of the world's largest proven reserves of natural gas and
the eighth-largest proven reserves of oil, Russia could be a major supplier
of both to the United States. American companies surely would welcome
more access to the oil and gas fields of Siberia and the Russian Arctic.
For now, however, the policy differences between Bush and Putin seem
to stand in the way of a comprehensive trade agreement beneficial to
both countries. Foreign entrepreneurs looking for investment opportunities,
moreover, continue to complain about obstacles to doing business in
Russia, such as outdated and defective infrastructure, excessive bureaucracy,
and uncertain judicial processes.
After long negotiations, the 25-nation European Union agreed to support
Russia for membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), in exchange
for Putin's promise to reverse his opposition to the Kyoto Protocol
on worldwide control of emissions damaging to the environment, particularly
heat-trapping gases, such as carbon dioxide.
Putin will now urge the Duma to ratify the very Protocol the Bush administration
has persistently rejected and ridiculed. To take effect, the agreement
has to be ratified by enough nations to account for 55 percent of 1990
emissions. So far, 44 percent have ratified it. If Russia with its 17
percent emissions share votes to approve the Kyoto treaty, it will go
into effect, U.S. opposition notwithstanding.