There is much concern among the promoters of the European Union (E.U.)
about British hesitancy, even outright opposition, to joining as a full-fledged
partner. How in particular will the sagging popularity of Prime Minister
Tony Blair impact upon his policies toward Europe and the United States?
Ten years ago, on July 21, 1994, the Labour Party chose the 41-year
old Blair as its standard bearer, impressed by his charisma, his youth,
his eloquence, his energy, and--last not least--his impressive telegenic
appearance. Once in power, he soon showed that behind his easy smile
stood a man with an uncompromising determination to turn socialist-imbued
Old Labour into a modern membership organization unimpeded by ideological
doctrines.
Having grudgingly learned a few lessons from Margaret Thatcher's successes,
Blair continued on the path of market liberalization and structural
reforms. The results were stunning: two landslide victories at the polls,
in 1997 and 2001.
Today, however, the old Blair magic has all but faded away. In the most
recent local elections, 27 percent of the voters chose Labourites, and
only 23 percent backed Labour's candidates for the European Parliament.
Never in almost two hundred years did a governing party in the United
Kingdom do so badly at the polls. Commentators now interpret Blair's
eloquence as tiring tirades of deceitful spin. With regard to his support
of the Bush administration's policies in Iraq, some call him "Bush's
poodle."
Domestic problems are intensifying. Interest rates are climbing. The
burdens of indirect taxes and of new rules and regulations are increasing.
Media reports have it that, over seven years of Labour government, the
number of pages of the widely used "Tolley's Tax Guide" has
doubled.
Nevertheless, all indications are that the present crisis--the unpopular
British involvement in Iraq, the divisive debate over Britain's potential
loss of sovereignty to the E.U.'s bureaucrats, and the ballooning national
debt--will not make Tony Blair relinquish the leadership of his party
voluntarily. If he could win the next parliamentary elections, he would
match Margaret Thatcher's record of three victories in succession. Otherwise,
it would be a record defeat for Labour if it lost its present parliamentary
majority of 165 seats.
As British voters look at the alternatives to Labour and Blair, however,
they can hardly be encouraged by what they see. The conservative opposition
under Michael Howard's leadership is sorely divided over the advantages
and disadvantages of full British integration into the E.U. and the
adoption of the Euro in place of Sterling, the U.K.'s historic currency.
Many Conservatives support Britain's military alliance with the United
States in Iraq, but they also favor British leadership in Europe. Opposition
to the E.U., however, remains strong, as demonstrated by the founding
of the United Kingdom Independence Party that attracts mainly the most
nationalistic elements among Conservatives.
If the British refuse to give up some of their national sovereignty
to the E.U. and if they do not become fully integrated in the potential
United States of Europe, they may well find Germany and France exert
a dominant influence on the political development and direction of the
continent.
Recently, the Prime Minister has avoided taking strong positions on
the situation in Iraq and on Britain's relationship to the E.U. He probably
is keenly aware of the propensity of his countrymen to drop even the
most popular politician if they consider it best for the nation's sake,
to wit the unceremonious ouster of Winston Churchill in 1945 and Margaret
Thatcher in 1990.